India's Government Debt: A Beacon of Safety and Prudence

· Business news

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has recently highlighted the robust and secure nature of India’s government debt, describing it as “safe and prudent.” In a series of posts on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Sitharaman emphasized that debt assessments should consider GDP growth, often overlooked in straightforward comparisons of absolute numbers.

 

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman

Sitharaman contrasted the current government’s fiscal management under Prime Minister Narendra Modi with that of the previous Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). She noted that despite facing the economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Modi administration has demonstrated superior fiscal discipline.

Addressing the promises made by Congress in its manifesto, Sitharaman questioned the fiscal feasibility of schemes proposed by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, such as the ‘Khata Khat’ initiatives. Gandhi had promised to transfer ₹1 lakh to one woman in every poor household if Congress wins the elections. Sitharaman challenged this by asking how Congress plans to finance such schemes, whether through substantial borrowing or increased taxes.

She highlighted that India’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 81% in 2022, which is significantly lower than that of several major economies. For comparison, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio was 260.1%, Italy’s was 140.5%, the USA’s was 121.3%, France’s was 111.8%, and the UK’s was 101.9%. This comparison underscores India’s relative fiscal stability.

Additionally, Sitharaman pointed out that India’s central government debt is predominantly rupee-denominated, with external borrowings accounting for less than 5% of total debt. This structure minimizes India’s exposure to exchange rate volatility. She recalled that the central government’s debt as a percentage of GDP was reduced from 52.2% in 2013–14 to around 48.9% in 2018–19 through fiscal consolidation efforts. During this period, the fiscal deficit was also reduced from 4.5% in FY14 to 3.4% in FY19.

However, the fiscal deficit surged to 9.2% of GDP in 2020–21 due to the pandemic and necessary government interventions to protect lives and livelihoods, increasing the central government’s debt to 61.4% of GDP. Post-pandemic, the Modi government has adopted a balanced approach to fiscal consolidation while maintaining economic growth, reducing the fiscal deficit to 5.8% in the Revised Estimates for FY24.

In conclusion, Sitharaman’s detailed breakdown underscores the prudent management of India’s government debt, emphasizing the country’s strong fiscal position relative to other major economies. The current administration’s focus on fiscal consolidation and economic growth post-pandemic showcases a commitment to maintaining financial stability while fostering development.